25 May 2022: In the US, demand for AAC is exceeding supply. Aercon (Florida) recently re-opened after a major factory renovation and is already experiencing 3 months from order to delivery (OTD). The only other manufacturers serving the US market are in Mexico. At least one of these is projecting a 2 week OTD, depending on border and shipping delays. Many areas of the US would see delivery costs from Mexico near 50% of the AAC product they are delivering.
The current US housing market is at historic highs and is up nearly 20% Year-over-year (YoY). The Great Recession of 2008, expedited by a US housing "bubble" (i.e., an unsustainable increase in prices) is recent memory and this has some pundits predicting everything from the bubble is about to pop (Wolf Richter). DallasFed.Org is more cautiously stating that a bubble may be forming. Others point to numerous fundamentals, such as missing housing stock, as reasons current home prices are likely to continue to increase or remain steady for years to come (Forbes).
Buildings are complex, expensive, illiquid assets with multiple supply-chain inputs. Changes in the builder's financing rates or in demand for housing can change dramatically from the time a house is planned to the time keys are handed to the homeowner. Builders are especially sensitive to delays.
When used, AAC is a major component of any building and not something a builder can just work around until later. This presents a "chicken-or-egg" situation in that builders assume significant risk using a product without a stable supply, but AAC factories aren't built until builders provide significant demand.
Is this the most significant reason for AAC's inability to penetrate the US housing market after decades of trying? AAC manufacturing in the US is nearly non-existent both when lumber spikes higher than AAC and wildfire season becomes year-round, and also when lumber is cheap and AAC is only 10% higher. Will it take a sustained inability to obtain lumber at any price, or draconian energy efficiency standards? Time will tell.
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